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ADB’s Inflation Forecast for India

Published on July 22, 2019
Current context: Asian Development Bank (ADB) has lowered the inflation forecast for India to 4.1% in FY 2020
ADB’s Inflation Forecast for India
  • The forecast has shown low figure due to gain in rupee and cut in the country’s GDP projection
  • ADB has supplemented Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2019 which said that India will be the main driver to lower the inflation for the south Asian region
  • The inflation forecast for South Asia for 2019 was lowered from 4.7% to 4.5%, mainly due to lowered forecast for India
  • India’s GDP forecast has also been lowered by ADO in 2019-20
  • RBI has raised the retail inflation forecast marginally to 3-3.1% for the 1st half of fiscal in its last monetary policy review in June
  • But the retail inflation for the 2nd half of 2019-20 has been cut to 3.4-3.7% rather than RBI’s previous projection of 3.5-3.8%
  • RBI will review the monetary policy in August 2019


Q.1 Out of the given options, which Indicator/Indicators are considered for Inflation forecast by ADB?
a. Currency’s Value of a country
b. country’s GDP
c. Oil prices
d. All of the above
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