WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2024-2028)

Current Context: The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released the “WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2024-2028)” on June 10, 2024.

• The report indicates that the planet’s annual average temperature is 80% likely to temporarily exceed the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels for at least one of the next five years.
• The global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2024 and 2028 is predicted to be between 1.1°C and 1.9°C higher than the 1850-1900 baseline.
• There is a 47% likelihood that the global temperature averaged over the entire five-year 2024-2028 period will exceed 1.5°C above the pre-industrial era.
• It’s also likely (86%) that at least one of these years will set a new temperature record, beating 2023 which is currently the warmest year.

Question:

1 What is the likelihood that the planet’s annual average temperature will temporarily exceed the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels for at least one of the next five years?

• A) 80%
• B) 60%
• C) 40%
• D) 90%

Answer: A) The report indicates that the planet’s annual average temperature is 80% likely to temporarily exceed the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels for at least one of the next five years.