SBI Research Report Projects India’s GDP Growth at 6.8%-7.0% in Q1FY26

Current Context: SBI Research released its GDP outlook on 21 August 2025, authored by Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser.

• The report, part of the SBI Ecowrap series, estimates India’s Q1 FY26 GDP growth at 6.8%–7.0%, with a nowcast model projecting 6.9%.
• GVA growth is pegged at 6.5%, driven by strong government capital expenditure, which shows high elasticity to GDP.
• Private investment remains subdued, with enterprise surveys indicating weak capex intentions.
• US tariff hikes pose risks to export-oriented sectors like textiles and chemicals.
• Despite rural recovery and healthy discretionary demand, corporate earnings show signs of moderation.
• The full-year FY26 GDP forecast stands at 6.3%, slightly below RBI’s 6.5% projection.

Question:

Q.1 As per SBI Research, what is the estimated GDP growth rate for India in Q1 FY26?
a) 5.9% – 6.1%
b) 6.3% – 6.5%
c) 7.2% – 7.4%
d) 6.8% – 7.0%

Answer: d) The report estimates Q1 FY26 GDP growth in the range of 6.8%–7.0%, with the nowcast model projecting 6.9%.