SBI Report: India to Enter Upper Middle-Income Category in 4 Years

Current Context: The State Bank of India (SBI) Research Department released its flagship report SBI Ecowrap on 19 January 2026.

• The report projects that India will move into the Upper Middle-Income category within the next four years, by around 2030, as its per capita Gross National Income (GNI) is expected to cross $4,000.
• It highlights India’s economic journey from being a low-income country in 1962 with $90 GNI to achieving lower-middle income status in 2007 with $910 GNI.
• India crossed the $1,000 mark in 2009 and the $2,000 mark in 2019, with $3,000 expected by 2026.
• The report also emphasizes India’s strong growth performance, placing it in the 95th percentile globally over the past decade.
• Furthermore, it predicts that India will become the third-largest economy in the world by 2028, driven by reforms, infrastructure expansion, and digitalization.

Question:

Q.1 According to the SBI Ecowrap report, India is expected to enter the Upper Middle-Income category when its per capita GNI crosses approximately:
a) $3,000
b) $3,500
c) $4,600
d) $4,000

Answer: d) As per World Bank classification, crossing $4,000 per capita GNI places a country in the Upper Middle-Income category. The report projects India achieving this by around 2030.