SBI Report: India’s Q3 FY26 GDP Growth Near 8.1%

Current Context: The Ecowrap: Q3 FY26 GDP could be more than 8.0% (Issue No. 27, FY26) was released by SBI Research, led by Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, on February 24, 2026.

• The report is a nowcast, estimating India’s GDP growth in Q3 FY26 (Oct–Dec 2025) at 8.0–8.1%, based on a machine‑learning Dynamic Factor Model.
• It analyzed 50 high‑frequency indicators, finding that 87% showed acceleration compared to 80% in the previous quarter, signaling strong economic momentum.
• Key drivers included tractor sales, electricity consumption, and GST collections, reflecting broad‑based activity across sectors.
• A major highlight was the resilient rural demand, with both farm and non‑farm activity rising together, while urban consumption remained robust due to festive season spending.
• The report cautioned that official GDP figures (due February 27, 2026) will adopt a new 2022–23 base year, making the direction of revisions unpredictable due to the methodological shift.

Question:

Q.1 The Ecowrap report estimates India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for Q3 FY26 (October–December 2025) at approximately:
a) 6.5–6.8%
b) 7.0–7.2%
c) 8.0–8.1%
d) 9.0–9.5%

Answer: c) The report is a nowcast, estimating India’s GDP growth in Q3 FY26 (Oct–Dec 2025) at 8.0–8.1%, based on a machine‑learning Dynamic Factor Model.